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This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of over...
Budget feasible mechanism design studies procurement combinatorial auctions in which the sellers have private costs to produce items, and the buyer (auctioneer) aims to maxi mize a social valuation fu...
This paper examines the adaptive market hypothesis of Lo (2004, 2005) using the Ito and Noda’s (2012) non-Bayesian time-varying AR model in Japan. As shown in Ito and Noda (2012), their degree of mar...
We propose a betting strategy based on Bayesian logistic regression modeling for the probability forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability by Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove som...
A Bayesian estimation of a GARCH model is performed for US Dollar/Japanese Yen exchange rate by the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal density given by the adaptive construction scheme. In ...
We develop a non-life reserving model using a stable-1/2 random bridge to simulate the accumulation of paid claims, allowing for an arbitrary choice of a priori distribution for the ultimate loss. Tak...
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities o...
This paper develops a matrix-variate adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressions (CVAR). We replace the popular approach to sampling Bayesian...
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of...
Examination on firm performance subsequent to a chosen event is widely used in finance studies to analyze the motivation behind managerial decisions. However, results are often subject to bias when th...
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility va...
We review and illustrate how the volatility smile translates into a probability distribution, the market-implied probability distribution representing believes priced in. The effects of changes in the...
We study the performance of the adaptive construction scheme for a Bayesian inference on the Quadratic GARCH model which introduces the asymmetry in time series dynamics.In the adaptive construction s...
To meet the Basel II regulatory requirements for the Advanced Measurement Approaches, the bank’s internal model must include the use of internal data, relevant external data, scenario analysis and f...
A system for Operational Risk management based on the computational paradigm of Bayesian Networks is presented. The algorithm allows the construction of a Bayesian Network targeted for each bank using...

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