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We consider the problem of estimating parameters of stochastic differential equations with discrete-time observations that are either completely or partially observed. The transition density between t...
Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to ru...
Residuals in regression models are often spatially correlated.Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants.
We introduce new quantile estimators with adaptive importance sampling. The adaptive estimators are based on weighted samples that are neither independent nor identically distributed. Using a new l...
Theory of Probability is distinguished by several high-level philosophical attitudes, some stressed by Jeffreys, some implicit. By reviewing these we may recognize the importance in this work in the...
This paper presents a methodology for cross-validation in the context of Bayesian modelling of situations we loosely refer to as iverse problems It is motivated by an example from palaeoclimatology ...
We present a Bayesian sampling algorithm called adaptive importance sampling or Population Monte Carlo (PMC), whose computational workload is easily parallelizable and thus has the potential to consi...
Simulated tempering (ST) is an established Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for sampling from a multimodal density (). Typically, ST involves introducing an auxiliary variable k taking value...
We describe a simple Importance Sampling strategy for Monte Carlo simulations based on a least squares optimization procedure. With several numerical examples, we show that such Least Squares Importa...

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