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We express the classic ARMA time-series model as a directed graphical model. In doing so, we find that the deterministic re-lationships in the model make it effectively impossible to use the EM algori...
The Interbank Offered Rate is a vital benchmark interest rate in the financial markets of every country to which financial contracts are tied. In the light of the recent LIBOR manipulation incident, t...
The Interbank Offered Rate is a vital benchmark interest rate in the financial markets of every country to which financial contracts are tied. In the light of the recent LIBOR manipulation incident, t...
This paper describes a novel approach to changepoint detection when the observed high-dimensional data may have missing elements. The performance of classical methods for changepoint detection typical...
Mimicking the maximum likelihood estimator, we construct first order Cramer-Rao efficient and explicitly computable estimators for the scale parameterσ2 in the model Zi,n =σn−βXi+Yi, i = 1, . . ...
This paper addresses the prediction of functional time series. Existing contributions to this problem have largely focused on the special case of rst-order functional autoregressive processes because...
Causal inference uses observations to infer the causal structure of the data generating system.We study a class of functional models that we call Time Series Models with Independent Noise (TiMINo). Th...
Smoothing methods and SiZer are a useful statistical tool for discovering statistically significant structure in data. Based on scale space ideas originally developed in the computer vision literature...
In this paper we investigate the performance of periodogram based estimators of the spectral density matrix of possibly high-dimensional time series. We suggest and study shrinkage as a remedy against...
A wealth of epidemiological data suggests an association between mortality/morbidity from pulmonary and cardiovascular adverse events and air pollution, but uncertainty remains as to the extent implie...
Parameter estimation in a class of heteroscedastic time series models is investigated. The existence of conditional least-squares and conditional likelihood estimators is proved. Their consistency and...
The Commission of the European Union, as well the United States Environmental Protection Agency, have set limit values for some pollutants in the ambient air that have been shown to have adverse effec...

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