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Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using Bayesian model averaging with truncated normal components
Bayesian model averaging continuous ranked probability score ensemble calibration truncated normal distribution
2013/6/13
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical method for post-processing forecast ensembles of atmospheric variables, obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models, in order to ...
Combining Dynamic Predictions from Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data using Bayesian Model Averaging
Prognostic Modeling Risk Prediction
2013/4/27
The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive applica...
Tobit Bayesian Model Averaging and the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment
Bayesian Model Averaging Foreign Direct Investment Tobit Estimation Gibbs Sampling Conditional Bayes Factors
2012/6/5
We develop a fully Bayesian, computationally efficient framework for incorporating model uncertainty into Type II Tobit models and apply this to the investigation of the determinants of Foreign Direct...
Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Predictive Information Criterion for Model Selection
Bayesian model averaging Bayesian predictive information criterion Markov chain Monte Carlo
2009/3/5
The problem of evaluating the goodness of the predictive distributions developed by the Bayesian model averaging approach is investigated. Considering the maximization of the posterior mean of the exp...