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We argue that a semantics for counterfactual conditionals in terms of comparative overall similarity faces a formal limitation due to Arrow’s impossibility theorem from social choice theory. According...
This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such p...
Using Jim Woodward's counterfactual dependency account of causality as an example, this paper argues that causal claims cannot be fuitfully analyzed by including the truth or falsity of counterfactual...
Recessions are associated with both rising oil prices and increases in the federal funds rate. Are recessions caused by the spikes in oil prices or by the sharp tightening of monetary policy? This pap...
We consider a framework for counterfactual statistical analysis with graphical models based on marked point processes. The main idea is to treat the counterfactual scenario as just another probability...

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