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Probabilistic wind speed forecasting using Bayesian model averaging with truncated normal components
Bayesian model averaging continuous ranked probability score ensemble calibration truncated normal distribution
2013/6/13
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a statistical method for post-processing forecast ensembles of atmospheric variables, obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models, in order to ...
Combining Dynamic Predictions from Joint Models for Longitudinal and Time-to-Event Data using Bayesian Model Averaging
Prognostic Modeling Risk Prediction
2013/4/27
The joint modeling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is an active area of statistics research that has received a lot of attention in the recent years. More recently, a new and attractive applica...
Bayesian Model Averaging and Bayesian Predictive Information Criterion for Model Selection
Bayesian model averaging Bayesian predictive information criterion Markov chain Monte Carlo
2009/3/5
The problem of evaluating the goodness of the predictive distributions developed by the Bayesian model averaging approach is investigated. Considering the maximization of the posterior mean of the exp...