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Comment on ‘America’s Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s’ by J. Bradford De Long
Inflation Peacetime
2015/8/4
Comment on ‘America’s Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s’ by J. Bradford De Long.
Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds
Inflation and Deflation Bonds Interest Rates Investment Return Risk Management United States
2015/4/23
The covariance between U.S. Treasury bond returns and stock returns has moved considerably over time. While it was slightly positive on average in the period 1953–2009, it was unusually high in the ea...
The past five decades have seen tremendous changes in inflation dynamics in the United States. Some of the changes arguably stem from transformations in the U.S. economy. Energy is a smaller share of ...
U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis
core inflation wavelets trend inflation inflation prediction
2011/3/31
This paper proposes the use of wavelet methods to estimate U.S. core inflation. It explains wavelet methods and suggests they are ideally suited to this task. Comparisons are made with traditional CPI...
Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices
Forecasting Output Inflation Asset Prices
2014/3/18
Because asset prices are forward-looking, they constitute a class of potentially use-ful predictors of inflation and output growth. The premise that interest rates and asset prices contain usefu...
This paper investigates forecasts of US in#ation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out-of-sample foreca...