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We estimate a model that summarizes the yield curve using latent factors (specifically, level,slope, and curvature) and also includes observable macroeconomic variables (specifically, real activity,in...
Fifty Years of the Phillips Curve: A Dialog on What We Have Learned.
This paper documents the evolution of long-run inflation expectations and models the stance of monetary policy from 1965 to 1980. A host of survey-based measures and financial market data indicate t...
The debate over the Phillips Curve - as the relation between level of unemployment rate and inflation rate - in historical economics is shortly reviewed. By using the analysis in the Extreme Value The...
A lot, including a few things you may not expect. Previous studies find that the term spread forecasts GDP but these regressions are unconstrained and do not model regressor endogeneity. We bu...
This paper develops an arbitrage-free time-series model of yields in continuous time that incorporates central bank policy. Policy-related events, such as FOMC meetings and releases of macroeconomic...
The article presents the author commentaries of Monika Piazzesi and Martin Schneider's "Bond Positions, Expectations, and the Yield Curve." It refers to the integration of macroeconomics and finance i...
We present a quantitative study of the markets and models evolution across the credit crunch crisis. In particular, we focus on the fixed income market and we analyze the most relevant empirical evide...
A quantitative model is presented linking the rate of inflation and unemployment to the change in the level of labor force. The link between the involved variables is a linear one with all coefficient...
This paper presents an answer to why the yield curve tends to invert one year before a recession. The capital-based macroeconomic model used in this paper traces out the effects of an injection of s...
As coastal areas in China achieved economic growth, income disparities between the rural and urban areas have become prominent, and this trend can be measured using Gini coefficients and Theil indice...
For a long time interest-rate models were built on a single yield curve used both for discounting and forwarding. However, the crisis that has affected financial markets in the last years led market p...
As coastal areas in China achieved economic growth, income disparities between the rural and urban areas have become prominent, and this trend can be measured using Gini coefficients and Theil indices...
The paper is focused on the economic and mathematical analysis of the Engel demand model in the exponential form: q = a0 × ea1/X.Properties of this exponential model are studied with respect to its ap...

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