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Bayesian logistic betting strategy against probability forecasting
exponential family game-theoretic probability Japan Meteorological Agency probability of precipitation strong law of large numbers
2012/4/28
We propose a betting strategy based on Bayesian logistic regression modeling for the probability forecasting game in the framework of game-theoretic probability by Shafer and Vovk (2001). We prove som...
Realized Wavelet Jump-GARCH model: Can wavelet decomposition of volatility improve its forecasting?
wavelet decomposition jumps volatility forecasting Realized GARCH
2012/4/28
In this paper, we propose a forecasting model for volatility based on its decomposition to several investment horizons and jumps. As a forecasting tool, we utilize Realized GARCH framework of Hansen e...