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The Maturity of Debt Issues and Predictable Variation in Bond Returns
Borrowing and Debt Bonds Investment Return Financial Markets Forecasting and Prediction
2015/5/13
The maturity of new debt issues predicts excess bond returns. When the share of long term debt issues in total debt issues is high, future excess bond returns are low. This predictive power comes in t...
Hidden Regular Variation: Detection and Estimation
Hidden Regular Variation Detection Estimation
2010/10/18
Hidden regular variation defines a subfamily of distributions satisfying multivariate regular variation on $\mathbb{E} = [0, \infty]^d \backslash \{(0,0, ..., 0) \} $ and models another regular varia...
Spectral Risk Measures with an Application to Futures Clearinghouse Variation Margin Requirements
Spectral risk measures Expected Shortfall Value at Risk GARCH clearinghouse
2011/3/31
This paper applies an AR(1)-GARCH (1, 1) process to detail the conditional distributions of the return distributions for the S&P500, FT100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei225 futures contracts.