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Predicting Inflation: Professional Experts Versus No-Change Forecasts
inflation predictive distribution reference forecast
2010/10/19
We compare forecasts of United States inflation from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to predictions made by simple statistical techniques. In nowcasting, economic expertise is persuasive...
Most professional golfers and analysts think that winning on the PGA Tour peaks
when golfers are in their thirties. Rather than relying on educated guesses, we can
actually use available statistical...