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Reasons for (prior) belief in Bayesian epistemology
Bayesian epistemology prior probabilities credences reasons for belief principle of insufficient reason belief revision belief formation
2016/6/12
Bayesian epistemology tells us how we should move from prior to posterior beliefs in light of new evidence or information, but says little about where our prior beliefs come from. It offers few resour...
Representation as a Process of Model-Building:A Case from Economics
Representation Model-Building Static Idea of Representation Dynamic Idea of Representation Nancy Cartwright Robert Sudgen International Trade Theory
2016/6/12
What does it mean to say that a theory represents the targeted phenomenon that it aims to explain? Our interpretation of “representation” is closely related to the methodological position that we woul...
Overdetermination in Intuitive Causal Decision Theory
causal decision theory causation overdetermination preemption trumping decisional overdetermination
2016/6/12
Causal decision theory defines a rational action as the one that tends to cause the best outcomes. If we adopt counterfactual or probabilistic theories of causation, then we may face problems in overd...
In a recent article, José Luis Bermúdez challenged David Lewis’s argument about Newcomb’s problem (NP) and the prisoner’s dilemma (PD) being the same. I show briefly that Bermúdez’s counterargument is...
DESCRIPTION AND THE PROBLEM OF PRIORS
problem of priors Lewis-Skyrms signaling game evolutionary game theory
2016/6/12
Belief-revision models of knowledge describe how to update one's degrees of belief associated with hypotheses as one considers new evidence, but they typically do not say how probabilities become asso...
Prediction Games
signaling game theory prediction
2016/6/12
We consider an extension of signaling games to the case of prediction, where one agent (‘sender’) perceives the current state of the world and sends a signal. The second agent (‘receiver’) perceives t...
Introduction to Special Issue on 'Actual Causation'
Causation Actual Causation Causal Models Structural Equations Causal Graphs Counterfactual Theories of Causation Regularity Theories of Causation Manipulationist Theories of Causation Interventions Psychology of Causation Causal Decision Theory Functional Theories of Causation
2016/6/12
An actual cause of some token effect is itself a (distinct) token event (or fact, or state of affairs, …) that helped to bring about that effect. The notion of an actual cause is different from that o...
A Consistent Set of Infinite-Order Probabilities
model higher-order probability infinite regress
2016/6/12
Some philosophers have claimed that it is meaningless or paradoxical to consider the probability of a probability. Others have however argued that second-order probabilities do not pose any particular...
Prediction and typicality in multiverse cosmology
Typicality anthropic principle multiverse cosmology dark matter
2016/6/12
In the absence of a fundamental theory that precisely predicts values for observable parameters, anthropic reasoning attempts to constrain probability distributions over those parameters in order to f...
What is Statistical Mechanics?
Statistical Mechanics Entropy Second Law of Thermodynamics Equilibrium
2016/5/30
Thermodynamics describes a large class of phenomena we observe in macroscopic systems. The aim of statistical mechanics is to account for this behaviour in terms of the dynamical laws governing the mi...
The puzzle of the unmarked clock and the new rational reflection principle
reflection principle externalism christensen williamson luminosity rationality epistemic modesty bayesianism
2016/5/30
The puzzle of the unmarked clock and the new rational reflection principle.
Cognitive Attitudes and Values in Science
values in science belief acceptance cognitive attitudes underdetermination paleoanthropology male provisioning hypothesis
2016/5/30
We argue that the analysis of cognitive attitudes should play a central role in developing more sophisticated accounts of the proper roles for values in science. First, we show that the major recent e...
Whither Experimental Semantics?
methodology experiments reference linguistic intuitions linguistic usage corpus Kripke Machery Mallon Nichols Stich
2016/5/30
The main goal of the paper is to propose a methodology for the theory of reference in which experiments feature prominently. These experiments should primarily test linguistic usage rather than the fo...
We review the current situation in the philosophy of time, partly to investigate Michael Dummett’s complaint that the philosophy of physics has become too specialized and technical to be able to commu...
Psychophysical Methods and the Evasion of Introspection
Psychology Perception Introspection Psychophysics Experimental Methods
2016/5/30
While introspective methods went out of favour with the decline of Titchener’s analytic school, many important questions concern the rehabilitation of introspection in contemporary psychology. Hatfiel...